ABSTRACT
Partaking in social distancing can contribute to a public good affected by the perceived risk of infection and socioeconomic cost. Although social distancing can save lives by slowing down the disease transmission before introducing any effective medical intervention, the economic fallout of social distancing can be brutal for the poorest, vulnerable, and marginalized members of society. We combined the epidemiological and evolutionary game theoretical (EGT) framework through the consolidations of the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) disease model to analyze behavior enticements in a social distancing dilemma situation with the complex behavioral decision-making aspect. Extensive theoretical and numerical analyses reveal that socioeconomic cost and infected individuals' compliance behavior are critical factors in reining disease spread in the community. Lower cost for maintaining relative safety distance encourages maximum avoidance of public interactions by a detected infected individual. The benefitted fraction due to compliance is parted from the naturally immunized population. People get insignificant benefits from social distancing when the disease transmission rate is too low or crosses critical higher values. Average Social Payoff (ASP) analysis suggests the correspondence of significant safety distance with lowest cost setting as the best strategy to derive the maximum goods. But mounting inherent cost converts social distancing obedience to a public good dilemma.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: In Yemen, initial surveillance of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) focused primarily on patients with symptoms or severe disease. The full spectrum of the disease remains unclear. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first seroprevalence study performed in Yemen. METHODS: This cross-sectional investigation included 2001 participants from all age groups from four districts in Aden, southern Yemen. A multi-stage sampling method was used. Data were collected using a well-structured questionnaire, and blood samples were taken. Healgen COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Diagnostic Test (RDT) Cassettes were used in all participants. All positive RDTs and 14% of negative RDTs underwent enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) testing (WANTAI SARS-CoV-2 Ab ELISA Kit) for confirmation. RESULTS: In total, 549 of 2001 participants were RDT positive and confirmed by ELISA, giving a prevalence of COVID-19 of 27.4%. The prevalence of immunoglobulin G was 25%. The prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 in the entire study group was 7.9%. The highest prevalence was observed in Al-Mansurah district (33.4%). Regarding sociodemographic factors, the prevalence of COVID-19 was significantly higher among females, housewives and subjects with a history of contact with a COVID-19 patient: 32%, 31% and 39%, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study found high prevalence of COVID-19 in the study population. Household transmission was common.